Happy Anniversary Barack And Mitt!

Five years ago today Barack Obama announced his bid for President of the United States.  It's not very often that you recognize the historical significance of something while it is happening, but this was one of those times.  Over the next couple years, I'd experience several more of these moments, but this is the one that I remember most vividly. It was the first time I fully realized that I was part of something far bigger than politics or even the presidency.  Win or lose, we were making history, and the story of America could not be told without mentioning Barack Obama on February 10th, 2007 in Springfield, Illinois.    

I had already been working on the exploratory committee in Washington DC for two weeks by the time he formally declared.  We were the very definition of an upstart campaign.  There were about ten of us in an office built for two.  The workspace was narrow and when someone at the end had to get out, it was essentially like being in the middle of the row in a cramped movie theater.  Everyone had to readjust to let the person through. Each of us had to bring our own laptop computers to work each day until the office space in Chicago opened up and we could make the move to the Windy City where we were promised computers would be waiting for us.

What many people don't realize about the announcement in Springfield was the hard work that went into making it go off without a hitch.  Pulling off an event of that magnitude and significance would be difficult for even a fully staffed advance team, which we did not have.  In the weeks leading up to the announcement I was sitting next to Alyssa Mastromonaco, the Director of Scheduling and Advance.  I have never in my life seen anyone work so hard and under such stressful conditions.  She was truly the unsung hero of that day five years ago, and deserves more credit than anyone for how well it turned out.  She was asked to perform a miracle and she delivered.  

Today, Mitt Romney also is celebrating an anniversary of sorts.  Four years ago at CPAC he dropped his first presidential bid and today he speaks to them as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for President.  One would think that this must represent a huge sea-change in support for Romney.  Unfortunately for him, it doesn't.  In fact, he's slightly more disliked now than he was then, and he was really disliked then.

When Romney first announced his run in February 2007, he was viewed favorably by 48% of voters and unfavorably by 31%, a net of +17.  One year later, in February 2008 when he abandoned his bid, Romney was viewed favorably by only 30% of voters and unfavorably by 44%, a net of -14.  In total, Romney's net favorability dropped 31 points after a year of campaigning.  When Romney announced his second run in June 2011, he was viewed favorably by 38% of voters and unfavorably by 31%, a net of +7.  Today, Romney finds himself viewed favorably by 31% of voters and unfavorably by 47%, a net of -16.  So in the last nine months of campaigning, Romney's net favorability has dropped 23 points, and is two points less than it was when he dropped out in 2008.  So while Romney finds himself in a much different position at this year's CPAC with regards to getting the GOP nomination, he actually finds himself in a worse position if his goal is to actually get elected President.  And considering that the more people see of Romney the less they like him, every day he campaigns for President actually hurts his chances more than it helps.  That's a tough spot to be in.  But either way, Happy Anniversary Mitt--at least you haven't dropped out yet.